Previewing U.S. women’s basketball semifinal vs. Australia with a chance for eighth straight gold medal

Two global rivals will meet again on Friday, as the United States women’s basketball team goes up against the Australian Opals with a spot in the 2024 Paris Games’ gold medal match on the line.

Team USA, which is riding a streak of 59 consecutive Olympic wins, advanced to the semifinals with an 88-74 triumph over Nigeria on Wednesday. Following an upset loss to Nigeria in their Olympic opener, the Opals have strung together three straight victories, including Wednesday’s 85-67 quarterfinal decision over Serbia.

While the U.S. women have been the gold standard for basketball across the world, winning seven consecutive Olympic gold medals and nine overall, Australia has been a historic powerhouse alongside them. The Opals have medaled in five of the past seven Summer Games, taking home three silvers and two bronze, although their semifinal run in Paris marks the first time they’ve advanced past the quarterfinals since the 2012 London Games.

2012 also was the last time the legendary Lauren Jackson suited up on the Olympic stage for the green and gold — until now. While Team USA has 42-year-old, six-time Olympian Diana Taurasi, the Opals have Jackson, 43, appearing in her fifth Games and first in 12 years. Jackson has always medaled in the competition, and though she has seen limited action so far in France, she has a chance to continue that streak this weekend.

Australia — which boasts six active WNBA players — has plenty of momentum, but the Opals are 0-20 all time against the U.S. senior national team, including 0-8 in Olympic competition. During the five Games in which they medaled, Australia lost to the U.S. either in the semifinals or the gold medal contest. The squads last met in 2020, when the Americans prevailed 79-55.

ESPN’s Alexa Philippou and Kevin Pelton break down some of the pressing questions heading into the matchup.

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Breanna Stewart credits Jackie Young for jump-starting Team USA

Breanna Stewart talks with Brian Windhorst after Team USA’s 14-point win over Nigeria to advance to the semifinals.

Team USA switched up its starting five against Nigeria, with Jackie Young in place of Diana Taurasi. Did the move fix its issues in the backcourt?

Philippou: Starting Young in place of Taurasi — who had last come off the bench at the Olympics in 2004 — was the right move. With 15 points against Nigeria, Young appears to be carving out a role as Team USA’s third scorer behind A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart. (Indeed, Young is the only other U.S. player averaging double figures at 10.3 points per game.) Young, one of three Las Vegas Aces players in the starting five, showed off her 3-point shooting earlier against Germany, going 5-of-8. But while she went scoreless from deep on Wednesday, it was her ability to get downhill and hit from midrange that stood out, along with her trademark defense in the backcourt. It took until the middle of the second quarter for the U.S. to really put its foot on the gas against Nigeria, but Young’s aggression and energy on both ends should continue to pay dividends. And Taurasi seemed to do well off the bench, where she stepped up as a facilitator with four assists.

Pelton: I’d love to see starting point guard Chelsea Gray be a threat to score. She missed all three of her shot attempts in the quarterfinals, bringing Gray to 1-of-13 so far during the Olympics. Remarkably, the U.S. outscored Nigeria by just two points in Gray’s 17:27, while all four other starters had a plus-minus of plus-17 or better while on the court.

Still, as I mentioned in our last roundtable, the U.S. women can overcome one non-scorer in the starting five so long as she is bringing something else to the table. And Gray is with her playmaking, having now totaled 22 assists against just three turnovers. So, I don’t think coach Cheryl Reeve needs to make further changes.

What problems do the Australians pose, and what could make them a tough matchup?

Philippou: WNBA fans will be well familiar with this Opals squad, which features the Seattle Storm‘s Ezi Magbegor and Sami Whitcomb, Minnesota Lynx‘s Alanna Smith, Los Angeles Sparks‘ Stephanie Talbot, Washington Mystics‘ Jade Melbourne and Indiana Fever‘s Kristy Wallace, plus New York Liberty coach Sandy Brondello at the helm. Not only do the Opals have the talent to compete against Team USA. They have momentum and resolve following their disappointing start to the Olympics. Brondello has been pleased with her team’s poise and grit over the past week, two qualities an opponent needs when facing the Americans.

The Opals, whose balanced attack boasts five players averaging at least 8.0 PPG, can hurt foes inside with Magbegor and Smith but also from the 3-point arc. Their 36.9% 3-point clip is the best in the Olympic field and much higher than Team USA’s paltry 30.8%. Whitcomb and Cayla George, a 2023 WNBA champion while with the Las Vegas Aces, lead the team with eight and seven treys, respectively.

Pelton: On paper, Australia is deeper and more talented than any team in the field save for the U.S. women. We can debate the best international player at the Paris Games, with Emma Meesseman (Belgium) and Satou Sabally (Germany) as strong candidates. But no team has a pair of players as good as the Opals’ frontcourt duo of Magbegor and Smith, both of whom would have been on my WNBA All-Star team this year. (Magbegor, a 2023 All-Star, was not named to the team this season despite similar production.) And no team outside the U.S. has nearly as much WNBA experience throughout its roster.

Given all that talent, it was shocking when Australia lost its opening game to Nigeria then barely beat winless Canada. In their past two games, we’ve seen the Opals we expected, as they beat topped France to advance to the knockout stage and led Serbia by as many as 28 in a lopsided quarterfinal victory.

A’Ja dishes to Stewie for three. 🎯

LeBron approves.

📺 USA Network and Peacock pic.twitter.com/yI8kbWNUps

— NBC Olympics & Paralympics (@NBCOlympics) August 7, 2024

Can anyone stop Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson?

Pelton: No. But if anyone is going to contain them, it’s the duo of Magbegor and Smith. Australia’s post players rank second (Magbegor, 2.4) and fourth (Smith, 1.8) in the WNBA in blocks per game and have the mobility to defend Stewart and Wilson on the perimeter. Magbegor is particularly experienced against both opponents, having faced Stewart in practice for three years as Storm teammates and matched up with Wilson in the 2022 WNBA semifinals.

The biggest obstacle for Magbegor and Smith is foul trouble. Magbegor picked up three first-half fouls against Canada, and Smith had two in the first quarter versus France, limiting their minutes. Backup George is a tough, skilled player (she scored 18 points in 24 minutes against Serbia) but nowhere near as athletic on defense.

Philippou: Pelton brings up a valid concern. But given the experience Stewart and Wilson have at this stage — Stewart is going for her third Olympic gold and Wilson her second, while Magbegor and Smith are appearing in their first Games — I’d expect the Team USA super duo to make the winning plays necessary in such a high-pressure situation to advance to the final.

Which of France and Belgium would be a tougher opponent for Team USA?

Pelton: I’m going with Belgium, which gave the U.S. women their toughest Olympic test yet. The Americans prevailed by 13 points, although the margin was just seven entering the fourth quarter of a group stage game played in Lille, France, near the border with Belgium. All this despite Belgium going just 5-of-27 in 3-point shooting, with Julie Vanloo particularly struggling from downtown while missing 10 of her 11 attempts. On Wednesday, the Mystics point guard went 3-of-5 from 3, scoring 13 points with seven assists (albeit with nine turnovers) as Belgium cruised past Spain, the only other team besides the U.S. that was unbeaten in pool play.

Philippou: As the host country with the crowd on its side and plenty of pride on the line, a difficult defensive team in France wouldn’t be a pushover, either, especially if Marine Johannes can go off like she did against Germany with 24 points off the bench and with Gabby Williams leading the way on both ends.

Has Team USA played its best basketball yet?

Philippou: In-game consistency, especially on offense, can still be an issue. There are times when the lack of playing time together or Reeve’s tweaking with rotations/combinations is still apparent. After all, there’s a reason why Sue Bird recently said on Carmelo Anthony’s podcast that USA Basketball is the most uncomfortable basketball she has ever played. After a bit of a slow start, the U.S. eventually led by 30 in the third quarter against Nigeria, but Reeve couldn’t have loved how her team allowed the D’Tigress to make it a 14-point game before the final buzzer. Through four games, the Americans’ lack of 3-point shooting hasn’t really been remedied, which could be an issue if opponents get hot from deep.

Team USA can’t overlook any of the remaining teams in the field, but with a defensive identity and offensive prowess led by Stewart and Wilson, it has shown it can put games away when it needs to, something that should transfer over into the final two games.

Pelton: On the flip side, I think the shooting is also reason to believe there’s another gear for the U.S. women. Collectively, the 12 players on the roster have combined to shoot 33% on 3-point attempts in the WNBA this season. That won’t earn a “Splash Sisters” nickname any time soon, but it’s also better than Team USA has managed from the shorter 3-point line in FIBA play.

Taurasi (1-of-7) and Jewell Loyd (2-of-10) are overdue to heat up from long range. Look out if they finally do.